In Feb 2023, the export price of rice in key markets in Asia moved in opposite directions. While the export price of Thai rice decreased, the prices of Vietnamese and Indian rice increased to their highest level in nearly two years due to strong demand even though risks of global supply remain…
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Toan, Director of the Digital Transformation and Agricultural Statistics Center, said that rice exports in Feb 2023 were estimated at 430,000, worth 231 million USD. Accumulated in the first 2 months, rice exports reached 789,000 tons and were worth 417 million USD. This result is down 18.8% in volume and 10.8% in value over the same period in 2022.
Rice exports are forecast to have many advantages in 2023.
EXPORT PRICES INCREASE
According to Customs, in 2022, Vietnam’s rice export turnover reached 7.1 million tons with a value of 3.45 billion USD. It is up 13.8% in volume and 5.1% in turnover over the same period in 2021. The average export price is 486 USD/ton.
Citing the statistics from Customs, Mr. Toan said that in Jan 2023, Vietnam’s rice exports reached 359,310 tons, bringing 186.6 million USD. The average export price was 519.3 USD/ton. Compared to Jan 2022, it decreased by 29% in volume but increased by 6.8% in export prices.
Vietnam’s rice exports in Jan continued to dominate key markets with high demand for output.
The Philippines was Vietnam’s largest rice consumer in Jan 2023 with 34.6% of the market share. Rice exports to this market in Jan 2023 reached 129.3 thousand tons and were worth 64.55 million USD. This figure is down 44.7% in volume and 41.4% in value over the same period in 2022.
In Jan 2023, the market with the strongest increase in rice export value was Taiwan (up 54.6%). In contrast, the market with the strongest decline in rice export value was Gana (down 86.2%).
“In Feb 2023, Vietnam’s average export price reached 537 USD/ton, up 17 USD/ton compared to Jan 2023. In particular, the price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice increased to 457 USD/ton, up by 8 USD/ton compared to the previous month.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Toan, Director of the Digital Transformation and Agricultural Statistics Center.
The average export price of rice in the first 2 months of 2023 is estimated at 528.5 USD/ton, up 9.8% over the same period in 2022.
In Feb, shipments to Africa and Malaysia decreased sharply compared to the previous year, while shipments to China and the Philippines increased strongly.
“Shipments of grain from the Black Sea have continued under an UN-backed deal, but that will be renegotiated this week. Risks of escalating the Russia-Ukrain conflict could cause the grain supply chain to be broken again. Therefore, it is forecast that many traders will increase their rice purchases in the context of uncertain world supply, ”said Mr. Nguyen Quoc Toan.
Vietnam’s rice exports will increase as countries boost food reserves.
Currently, the export prices of India’s rice have risen to their highest level in nearly two years due to strong demand even though risks of global supply remain. In India, the price of 5% broken rice is now at 397- 404 USD/ton, up 18 USD/ton over the previous month. Demand has risen sharply in the past few weeks due to lower prices of Indian rice compared to competitors.
According to Indian government officers and this country’s rice industry, India’s rice exports in 2022 increased to a record despite government restrictions as buyers continued to win competitive offers from the world’s top exporter. To control domestic prices, India plans to continue to ban the export of broken rice and set a 20% tariff on white rice shipments for export.
In Thailand, the standard price of 5% broken rice for export in Feb 2023 was 460 USD/ton, down 25 USD/ton compared to the previous month in the context of quiet transactions. Thai traders expect that new supply will be available on the market from early March to April which could further weaken rice prices.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Feb Rice Demand Outlook Report, global rice production in the 2022/23 crop is forecast to reach 503 million tons (milled rice). This is almost unchanged from last month’s forecast, but less than 2% from the previous year’s record and the first annual decline since the 2015/16 crop. Global rice production is at the lowest level since the 2019/20 crop. This month, rice output is forecast to rise in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Uzbekistan, while falling in Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, the EU, and Vietnam./.