According to the general assessment of enterprises, the pepper harvest in crop 2024 is expected to reach 160,000 – 165,000 tons, which will be down by 10-15%.
Mr. Le Viet Anh – Chief of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) said that from January 1 to September 30, 2023, Vietnam exported 204,385 tons of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 183,475 tons and white pepper reached 20,910 tons.
Pepper inventories in 2023 moving to 2024 will be at the lowest in recent years.
Total export turnover reached 678.1 million USD, black pepper reached 578.2 million USD, and white pepper reached 99.9 million USD. Enterprises in VPSA exports accounted for 63.6%.
Compared to the same period in 2022, exports increased by 15.3%, equivalent to 27,164 tons, but export turnover decreased by 13.4%, equivalent to 104.5 million USD.
The average export price of black pepper in the first 9 months of 2023 reached 3,539 USD/ton, and white pepper reached 5,068 USD/ton, which was down by 15.3% and 14.2% respectively compared to the same period in 2022.
On the opposite side, by the end of September 2023, Vietnam imported 20,541 tons of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 19,232 tons and white pepper reached 1,309 tons. Compared to the same period last year, the import volume decreased by 30.7%, equivalent to 9,084 tons.
Brazil, Cambodia, and Indonesia are the three main suppliers of Vietnam, reaching 12,517 tons, 3,403 tons, and 2,697 tons respectively. In particular, imports from Brazil increased by 62.2%, from Cambodia decreased by 73.0%, and from Indonesia decreased by 48%.
The domestic pepper market in the third quarter of 2023 did not have many changes when pepper prices fell slightly in July, then increased in August and September but fell again in mid-October. Now, the average price is at 70,000 VND/kg which is down by 10% compared to the same period last year.
Vietnam exported all of its harvest in 2023, a portion of which was taken away from imports as well as inventories from the previous year. It is expected that in the last three months of the year, Vietnam will export about 45,000 tons, bringing the total export volume in 2023 to an estimated 250,000 tons. Pepper inventories in 2023 moving to 2024 will be at the lowest in recent years.
According to Mr. Le Viet Anh, the pepper crop in 2024 will start in two months in Dak Nong, which is considered the most important area of Vietnam’s pepper today.
Vietnam’s pepper production in 2024 is forecast to decrease by 10-15%.
Rains and floods in July will affect the upcoming pepper harvest. The El Nino phenomenon which will occur at the end of the year may cause a decrease in pepper production in 2024 compared to 2023.
According to the general assessment of businesses, pepper harvest in crop 2024 will decrease by about 10-15% and is expected to reach 160,000 – 165,000 tons.
Global pepper production in 2024 will decrease when harvest from all producing countries is forecast to decrease. But this decrease is lower than the decrease in global demand. So it is difficult for pepper prices to increase continuously in the long term.
Except for China, it is forecast that the upcoming consumption demand of countries around the world may decline due to the impact of the economic crisis caused by the East-Europe conflict. At the same time, the war in Israel will also affect oil prices, which will make the world economic situation even more depressed, and purchasing power is likely to decrease soon.
Ms. Hoang Thi Lien – Chairman of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association – said that despite the difficult market conditions, in which the EU and US markets were quieter than the Chinese market, the industry achieved good export performance in the 9 months of this year, increased in quantity but decreased in value compared to last year.
In the next 3 months, pepper exports will depend on inventories from previous years.
Ms. Hoang Thi Lien said that the economic downturn, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict affected the global market including the oil price and the world trade situation in general.
Many countries encountered a scarcity of foreign currencies. Vietnam depends on export markets so it has seen a decline in general categories, and spices are no exception.
In addition, macro management policies, purchasing power, and consumption power of major markets including the US and the EU, which are Vietnam’s key markets, are likely to be difficult to recover in the short term./.