Currently, coffee is at the end of the season, so even the enterprises want to buy, there is no supply.
According to the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, coffee prices have been at the highest level in the past 30 years, with approximately 70,000 VND/kg of coffee beans in raw material areas. But Vietnam’s coffee is out of stock.
Vietnam’s coffee is out of stock despite high export prices.
Specifically, the amount of coffee exported from August and September is gradually decreasing compared to the same period last year and is expected to continue to decrease. Now, coffee is at the end of the season, so even the enterprises want to buy, there is no supply.
According to experts, in terms of macro, there are two main reasons for the increase in export coffee prices. Firstly, the US inflation is somewhat slow down and it is forecast that the US Federal Reserve (FED) may temporarily stop raising interest rates. This is the factor that drives funds and speculators back into the market after having aggressively liquidated for the previous two consecutive weeks. Therefore, funds and speculators buy strongly when the financial factor is more positive. In addition, the shortage of supply is one of the reasons for the increase in the export price of coffee.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, if the amount of coffee exported in the last months of the year is equal to the same period last year and the export price is equal to the first months of the year, the amount of coffee exported in 2023 will reach about 1.7 million tons, worth 4.2 billion USD. This will be a new record turnover of Vietnam’s coffee industry.
To ensure coffee prices remain high, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has approved the “Vietnam Specialty Coffee Development Scheme 2021-2030” with the goal that by 2025, the area of specialty coffee will account for 2% of the total area. This means the output will be 5,000 tons and up by 3% and 11,000 tons respectively in 2030./.