According to data from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in June 2024, Vietnam exported 85,000 tons of coffee worth 382 million USD. This result was up 7.1% in volume and 12.5% in value over May 2024. Compared to June 2023, it was down 40% in volume but up 0.4% in value.
In the first half of 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached about 902,000 tons, worth 3.22 billion USD. This figure was down 10.6% in volume but up 34.5% in value over the same period last year.
The average export price of Vietnamese coffee was 4,489 USD/ton in June 2024, up 5% compared to May 2024 and 67.3% compared to June 2023. Vietnam’s coffee saw an average export price of 3,570 USD/ton in the first six months of 2024, a 50.4% increase over the same period last year.
Vietnam’s billion-dollar treasure can surpass the 5 billion USD target this year.
In the world market, coffee prices continue to increase sharply. At the same time, many analysts forecast that the upward momentum can be maintained in the next trading sessions. Specifically, the price of robusta coffee for September 2024 on the London floor increased by 99 USD. Meanwhile, the price of Arabica coffee for same-term delivery on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 0.5% to 244.85 US cents per lb.
Similarly, coffee prices in the domestic market recorded an increase of more than 2,000 VND. Accordingly, in Dak Lak, Gia Lai, and Dak Nong, coffee is traded at 128,000 VND/kg. Particularly in Lam Dong province, the price is 127,400 VND/kg.
Coffee prices are constantly rising due to concerns that drier weather than normal may adversely affect coffee supplies from Vietnam and Brazil. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), unfavorable weather combined with disease outbreaks will reduce the next Robusta crop in Vietnam by 15% to 20%.
The Vicofa estimates that Robusta coffee production in the 2023–2024 crop is about 26.7 million bags, and Vietnam’s next crop in 2024–2025 will be between 21.40 and 22.70 million bags. This is significantly lower than Volcafe’s previous preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and much below the USDA’s recently released estimate of 27.85 million bags.
There are still many factors supporting coffee prices to go up, such as rising coffee demand from European importers due to the tendency to increase inventories to comply with the EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) standards. Along with that, the warehouse of the business is almost empty, while the new harvest has not started yet until October.
With this increase in coffee prices, many experts and coffee businesses expect that the price of this billion-dollar commodity will soon surpass the historical peak of 134,000 VND/kg, which was recorded at the end of April 2024.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecasts that coffee exports by 2024 will definitely exceed 5 billion USD, even up to 6 billion USD, which is the highest level in history.