Rubber has been one of Vietnam’s billion-dollar export items in recent years. Since the beginning of 2024, rubber has had relatively large growth.
According to the General Department of Customs, in July, Vietnam’s rubber exports reached 186,033 tons, worth 307.9 million USD. This result was down 15.3% in volume but up 7.3% in value over the same period last year. The rubber export price reached 1,655 USD/ton, up 2.9% over the previous month and 26.8% over the same period in 2023. This was the highest price in the past 2 years, since June 2022.
In the first 7 months of the year, Vietnam’s rubber exports reached 912,725 tons, worth 1.4 billion USD, down 7.5% in volume but up 5.9% in value over the same period last year. The average rubber export price in 7 months reached 1,551 USD/ton, up 14.5%.
Regarding the consumption market, from the beginning of the year, Vietnam’s rubber exports to China have tended to decrease while other markets have increased strongly.
Vietnam’s billion-dollar product is being hunted around the world.
In July, Vietnam’s rubber exports to China reached 127,664 tons, worth 206.73 million USD, down 27.2% in volume and 8.6% in value over the same period in 2023. This is the sixth consecutive month that rubber exports to this market have decreased compared to the same period last year.
Exports to China in the first 7 months of the year reached only 617,033 tons, worth 924.63 million USD, down 18.6% in volume and 8.2% in value over the same period in 2023.
China remains Vietnam’s largest rubber export market, but its market share has fallen from 76.8% to 67.6%.
Meanwhile, rubber exports to India and South Korea grew by 19.9% and 5.8%, respectively, in the first 7 months of the year, accounting for 8.1% and 3% of the export market share.
In addition, rubber exported to many other markets also increased sharply, such as Russia, which increased by 15.4%, Taiwan by 16.3%, or Turkey by 12.1%. In particular, Sri Lanka increased by 317.8%, Malaysia by 121%, or Belgium by 263.4%.
Thanks to the significant increase in rubber prices compared to 2023, Vietnamese rubber companies have had better achievements.
Recently, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) revised its forecast for global rubber demand in 2024 to 15.74 million tons and lowered its forecast for global natural rubber supply for the whole year to 14.5 million tons.
This makes the global market forecast a shortage of up to 1.24 million tons of natural rubber this year, higher than the 1.12 million tons forecast by the Association in May 2024.
The ANRPC also warned that the global shortage of natural rubber supply could last until 2028, with a shortfall of about 600,000–800,000 tons per year.
The concerns about the supply shortage in the market, especially the situation of shrinking production in the main export countries, including Vietnam, have caused the world and domestic rubber prices to increase since the beginning of the year. The weather transition between El Nino and La Nina has adversely affected the crop.
The continuous heavy rains caused flooding in rubber farms, slowed down the harvest progress, and reduced the rubber supply to the world market. In the world’s leading rubber-producing countries, such as Thailand and Indonesia, all have recorded a decrease in production over the past few years.
The Mercantile Exchange Of Vietnam (MXV) predicts that demand for rubber in the second half of 2024 is likely to stay positive as current. The latest economic data from the US showed the recovery of the world’s largest economy, though concerns about China’s prolonged weak economic recovery will limit the rise in natural rubber prices.