Entering 2026, Vietnamese pepper exports are expected to continue their positive trend. Regarding supply, domestic pepper production is unlikely to increase dramatically, as it requires time for investment and recovery.
2025 is one of the most successful years for Vietnam’s pepper industry, with export value increasing significantly amid high global prices and tightening of global supply. Although export volume did not increase strongly, the value still reached a record level. This has created an important foundation for pepper exports in 2026.
In 2025, Vietnam’s pepper exports have decreased slightly compared to previous years. The main cause is the reduced area of pepper cultivation after a prolonged period of low prices, and many production areas have not fully recovered. The shortage in major producing countries like Brazil and Indonesia, while demand from key markets such as the US, the EU, and India remained stable, has pushed prices sharply higher.
The significant increase in average export prices became a decisive factor, helping Vietnam’s pepper export turnover grow.
According to the Customs Department, in November 2025, Vietnam exported 18,013 tons of pepper, worth 118.5 million USD. This is an increase of 14% in volume and 11.5% in value compared to the same period last year. In 11 months of 2025, pepper exports reached 223,242 tons, a 5% decrease in volume but a 24% increase in value, reaching over 1.5 billion USD. This result is the highest level ever for the Vietnamese pepper industry.
Notably, the average export price in the first 11 months of 2025 was 6,764 USD/ton, an increase of up to 30.6% compared to 5,187 USD/ton in the same period last year. This is a key factor in setting a new record for pepper export turnover, despite a decline in production.
Ms. Hoang Thi Lien, Chairwoman of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), believes that many factors will continue to support pepper prices next year.
Extreme weather is significantly affecting the harvests of major pepper-growing countries. In India, unfavorable weather and pests have caused the estimated pepper production for the 2025-2026 crop to decrease to about 85,000 tons, significantly lower than previous forecasts. This decline reduces domestic supply and puts pressure on prices in the export market.
In Indonesia, rainfall slows down the harvest and results in fruit quality. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, floods in the Central Highlands are predicted to affect the yield, which is expected to take place in March 2026.
Market demand is also projected to continue increasing. According to Ms. Hoang Thi Lien, the world’s growing population has led to an increase in the demand for pepper. In particular, the clear economic recovery in many major markets is expected to boost the demand for spice imports, including pepper.
However, the Vietnamese pepper industry will face numerous challenges in 2026. Global economic volatility, risks from trade policies, and requirements for traceability, chemical residues, and sustainability standards from major import markets will continue to put pressure on export businesses. Additionally, the impact of climate change and extreme weather remains unpredictable, directly affecting domestic production.
In this context, improving product quality, sustainably developing raw material regions, and proactively adapting to international standards are essential, aiming to help Vietnam’s pepper industry maintain growth and strengthen its position in the global market in the coming years.