Thailand’s coconut industry is facing its most severe crisis in years, with coconut prices dropping to record lows, less than half the cost of production.
The price of coconuts in southern provinces like Songkhla is now only 2-3 baht (about 1,600-2,400 VND), while the average production cost is 4-5 baht (over 3,200-4,000 VND). Thailand currently produces about 500 million coconuts every year. Therefore, every 1 baht price reduction means a loss of 500 million baht for the entire industry, which is equivalent to over 400 billion dong. This is a giant figure for an industry that once generated tens of billions of baht in export turnover annually.
The main reason for this price decrease is that Vietnam has quickly dominated the Chinese market, which was once a “golden customer” for Thailand.
Vietnamese coconuts are threatening Thailand’s position as the leading coconut producer.
In 2024, Vietnam officially signed a protocol with China, allowing the export of fresh coconuts to the world’s largest consumer market. Since then, a series of large-scale shipments have been transported to China, particularly in late 2024 and early 2025. The Chinese market, which previously relied heavily on Thai supply, has now shifted strongly to imports from Vietnam.
According to Vietnamese media, exports of fresh and processed coconuts to China increased by hundreds of percent in 2025 alone, helping Vietnam maintain its position as an emerging supplier in Asia.
Coconut is considered a “global superfood,” with the global market expected to grow from 3.5 billion USD in 2023 to 8.2 billion USD in 2032. In that context, Vietnam, the world’s 7th largest coconut producer, has seized the opportunity with a clear development strategy.
The Vietnamese government classifies coconut as one of the 6 key industrial crops, which receive special support in terms of land, credit, and trade promotion.
The Mekong Delta region alone, especially Ben Tre, achieves an output of about 2 million tons per year. The number of coconut processing plants has increased from 8 in 2015 to 45 in 2024.
Its geographical distance to China helps Vietnam shorten shipping times and reduce logistics costs, giving it a clear competitive advantage over Thailand.
As a result, Vietnam’s coconut export turnover increased from 180 million USD in 2010 to over 900 million USD in 2023 and is expected to exceed 1 billion USD in 2024. Notably, most of the current export value comes from deeply processed products, rather than just exporting raw materials as before.
While Vietnam is continuously expanding production and achieving international organic standards for about 1/3 of its coconut growing area, Thailand is struggling with inconsistent product quality, a lack of planning, and no clear support policies for farmers. Coconut farmers in key areas like Ratchaburi and Samut Sakhon are suffering the most damage. Many people were forced to cut down their coconut trees or switch to other crops because they couldn’t afford the costs.
Similar to the durian story, experts warn that without urgent policies and a new export strategy, Thailand could completely lose its position as the “coconut kingdom” to Vietnam in the next few years.