The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) forecasts that tuna exports will decline significantly this year. The reason is due to the question of domestic raw materials being unsolved, along with the impact of geopolitical instability, as well as changes in trade policies in key markets.
According to the newly released report by the VASEP, in April 2025, Vietnam’s tuna export turnover only reached over 86 million USD, a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Among the exported tuna products, canned tuna has recorded a significant decline to near its lowest point in the past two years.
Statistics from the Vietnam Customs show that the export value of canned tuna from Vietnam in April 2025 was only nearly 15.8 million USD, a decrease of 50% compared to the same period in 2024. This is the lowest level since January 2023.
Tuna exports are forecast to decline this year.
Businesses reported that regulations on minimum allowable catch sizes and the prohibition on mixing imported seafood raw materials with domestically sourced ones in the same export shipment under Decree 37/2024 are severely impacting tuna fishing and export activities, especially for canned tuna products.
In contrast, exports of other tuna products have all increased this month. Notably, other processed tuna products under HS code 16, primarily loin (the meat along the backbone of the tuna), have seen a 62% increase compared to the same period last year. Frozen tuna meat/loin products increased by 15%.
Tuna exports to several key markets in April 2025 are also declining. After the US temporarily postponed the imposition of a 46% “countervailing duty” on goods imported from Vietnam for 90 days, Vietnamese businesses have boosted exports to this market. However, export activities are slowing down at this time. Exports to the US in April only reached nearly 36 million USD, an increase of 3% compared to the same period in 2024.
Exports to the EU are also slowing down, with the export value in April only increasing by 11% compared to the same period, reaching nearly 21 million USD.
The Netherlands, Italy, and Germany remain the top three markets importing Vietnamese tuna in this market bloc. Currently, exports to the Netherlands and Italy continue to grow, while exports to Germany decline compared to the same period last year.
In the Middle East, geopolitical instability is negatively impacting tuna export activities. In the Canadian market, after two months of strong growth, tuna exports in April turned to a decline. The export value only reached nearly 3 million USD, a decrease of 27% compared to the same period last year.
In the context of unresolved questions in domestic raw material sources, along with the impact of complex geopolitical situations and changes in trade policies in key markets, the VASEP forecasts that Vietnam’s tuna exports are likely to decline further in the coming time.