Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London continued to increase. The January delivery term increased by 106 USD to 2,759 USD/ton and the March delivery term increased by 102 USD to 2,724 USD/ton, which was a strong increase. Trading volume was very high above average.
The prices of Arabica coffee on the ICE US – New York were the same. March delivery term increased by 1.15 cents to 185.25 cents/lb and May delivery term by 0.70 cents to 182.50 cents/lb. Trading volume was above average.
Robusta coffee prices increased sharply.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces today increased by 1,400 VND/kg. Localities are buying coffee with prices in the range of 63,000 – 63,900 VND/kg. Lam Dong province has the lowest price of 63,000 VND/kg. Next is Gia Lai at 63,800 VND/kg. The two provinces of Dak Nong and Dak Lak recorded a transaction price of 63,900 VND/kg. This is the highest level among the surveyed localities.
Brazil’s National Meteorological Institute (Inmet) has issued a special warning about a dry period exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in the next few days, which will cover all major coffee growing areas for at least 04 days. This could put a strain on Brazil’s next crop.
CNC believes that the consumer market will decline due to unfavorable weather in the next few years and the world economic downturn. Meanwhile, the global coffee production is uncertain. The USDA forecast that the output of two major Robusta producers in Southeast Asia will decrease strongly because of adverse weather. The report on the global oversupply of one million bags in the 2023/2024 coffee season is just an estimate by ICO.
The Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA) forecast that the output of the current harvest will decrease to 1.6 – 1.7 million tons from 1.78 million tons of the previous year. Coffee growers do not agree with this forecast. According to them, this year’s production may decrease by at least 0.5 million tons, due to many converted planting areas and the intercropping of high-value crops.
Coffee traders in Southeast Asia said that currently, it is difficult to buy new Robusta coffee in Vietnam’s domestic market without competitive prices. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Sumatra type 4 coffee in the past week with a difference of up to 700 USD/ton compared to London’s price has yet to deliver.
Vietnam’s coffee exports tend to increase again when the supply is replenished from the ongoing 2023-2024 harvest.
The Russian market became the second-largest coffee export market of Vietnam in the past month.
According to the General Department of Customs, in November, coffee exports reached 119,297 tons (about 02 million bags, type 60 kg/bag), worth 356.7 million USD, an increase of 2.7 times in volume and 2.3 times in value compared to the last month.
Compared to the same period last year, exports of this product decreased by 7.4% in volume and increased by 16.8% in value.
By the end of November, the volume of coffee exports reached 1.4 million tons, down 10.4% over the same period last year. However, due to the benefit from the selling price, revenue still increased slightly by 0.4% to 3.64 billion USD.
VICOFA said the 2023-2024 coffee crop was harvested later than the previous crop. Some localities such as Gia Lai, Kon Tum, and Son La harvested coffee earlier in late October, early November, and fully in late November and December 2023.
Supply increased but the average export price of coffee in November fell again after 08 consecutive months of increase. The decrease level was up to 17% compared to the previous month to $2,990/ton. But it still increased by 26.2% compared to the same period in 2022.
In 11 months, the average export price of coffee reached 2,573 USD/ton, up 12% over the same period last year.
Regarding the consumption market, in November, the amount of coffee exported to most of the main markets increased sharply compared to the previous month.
The EU increased 3.6 times to 40,257 tons. The US increased 5.8 times to 10,244 tons. In particular, the Russian market increased 10 times to 12,198 tons, thereby surpassing the US market to become the second-largest coffee export market of Vietnam in the past month./.