The domestic pepper price today remains quite high at 147,000 VND/kg. Only the price in Gia Lai province slightly decreases to 146,000 VND/kg.
Pepper processing and exporting companies have reported that Vietnam’s pepper inventory is now very low. Meanwhile, the 2025 harvest may be delayed by one or two months and the output will decrease due to drought. China is expected to increase its purchases, contributing to price increases in 2025.
The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) expects the Chinese market to purchase more actively next year. This year, China only purchased about 10,000 tons, while other markets have bought more, reducing the pressure at the beginning of the season.
Experts predict that pepper prices will continue to enter a new cycle of increase in 2025 due to various factors. First, global supply is decreasing due to the impact of drought and adverse weather conditions. Secondly, high transportation costs are also driving up product prices. Finally, the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates is anticipated to stimulate economic activity in major importing countries, potentially increasing the demand for Vietnamese pepper in key markets such as the US and the EU.
Pepper price decreases slightly in the domestic market.
In 2024, Vietnam exported about 250,000 tons of pepper, worth 1.3 billion USD, far exceeding the 910.5 million USD of 2023 despite a lower export volume. This is the highest export value for the pepper industry since 2017.
According to the VPSA, although the outlook for pepper prices is quite optimistic, the pepper industry still faces challenges such as unstable weather, rising production costs, and the risk of diseases. In addition, a portion of farmers are switching to other crops such as durian and coffee, leading to a reduction in the pepper area, which affects production.
Experts said that the prolonged drought will delay the 2025 pepper harvest by about two months, causing difficulties in market supply. Therefore, the importing markets have increased their orders to ensure enough supply until the first quarter of 2025.
In the international market, the pepper market continues to maintain a relatively high level.
Specifically, the IPC listed the price of Lampung black pepper from Indonesia as stable at 6,855 USD/ton, similar to the price of Muntok white pepper, which is being purchased at 8,970 USD/ton.
Pepper prices in the Brazilian market at the beginning of 2025 have slightly increased to 6,325 USD/ton.
The ASTA black pepper price from Malaysia is now 8,500 USD/ton. Meanwhile, the ASTA white pepper price is 10,700 USD/ton.
The export price of Vietnamese black pepper is stable, reaching 6,400 USD/ton for the 500 g/l type and 6,700 USD/ton for the 550 g/l type. The price of white pepper is high at 9,600 USD/ton.
According to data from the Chinese Customs, in 11 months of 2024, China imported a total of 9,677 tons of pepper, worth 54.4 million USD, an increase of 15.1% in volume and 42.1% in value compared to the same period in 2023.
China’s imports from Indonesia, the largest supplier of pepper to China, were 5,141 tons, a significant increase of 41.7% compared to the same period last year, and accounting for 56.2% of the market share. Next, imports from Vietnam reached 3,021 tons, up 3.8% compared to the same period last year, accounting for 31.2% of the market share. Thus, Indonesia and Vietnam accounted for a total of 87.5% of the pepper supply to China in 11 months of 2024.