Vietnam’s pepper exports in 2023 increased by 16.6% in quantity but decreased by 6% in value. It is forecast that pepper export prices in 2024 will increase due to reduced production and inventory at the lowest level in many years…

Last year, the world economic downturn, high inflation, prolonged geopolitical tensions, and strong fluctuations in the global financial market have caused difficulties for pepper trade.

The pepper area is narrowed due to the competition of some other crops such as durian.

According to the General Department of Customs, in 2023, Vietnam exported 267,000 tons of pepper, bringing in 912 million USD. This result is up 16.6% in quantity but down 6.0% in value compared to 2022. The average export price of pepper reached about 3,420 USD/ton in 2023, down 19.4% compared to 2022.

CHINA AND THE US ARE THE TWO KEY MARKETS OF VIETNAMESE PEPPER

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) said statistics from businesses in the association are slightly lower than those of Customs.

Specifically, in December 2023, Vietnam exported 20,227 tons of pepper of all kinds, down 0.3% compared to November 2023. Of which, black pepper reached 17,833 tons and white pepper reached 2,394 tons. Pepper export turnover in December 2023 reached 77.6 million USD, down 0.7% compared to November 2023. The average export price of black pepper in December 2023 reached 3,728 USD/ton, equivalent to the export price in November 2023. White pepper reached 5,189 USD/ton, an increase of 112 USD compared to November 2023.

China and the US are the two key markets of Vietnam’s pepper.

The US continued to be the key export market of Vietnamese pepper in December 2023, accounting for 30.7% of the export market share, reaching 6,212 tons, up 13.8% over the previous month. This was followed by the UAE at 1,271 tonnes, China at 1,030 tonnes, and India at 1,011 tonnes.

In general, in 2023, according to the VPSA, Vietnam exported 264,094 tons of pepper of all kinds, up 13.8% compared to 2022. Total export turnover reached 906.5 million USD, down 8.0%; of which, black pepper reached 770.6 million USD, and white pepper reached 135.9 million USD.

Asia is Vietnam’s largest pepper export market in 2023, accounting for 52.7% of the market share. In particular, China accounted for 22.8% of the export market share, reaching 60,135 tons, up 174% compared to 2022.

Next is the following markets: India 12,812 tons, accounting for 4.9% (up 4.2%); UAE 12,132 tons, accounting for 4.6% (down 24.7%); and the Philippines 8,021 tons, accounting for 3.0% (up 27.5%). The Americas ranked second in terms of export market share, accounting for 22.8% and exports increased by 0.3%, of which, the US was the second-largest export market of Vietnamese pepper, reaching 54,271 tons, accounting for 20.5%, down 0.8% compared to last year.

Exports to European markets accounted for 19.5%, down 1.4% from last year. Exports to Africa increased by 7.8%.

FORECAST FOR 2024: PEPPER EXPORTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE

The VPSA forecasts that pepper exports in 2024 will be favorable, and prices will increase due to reduced production.

Global pepper production for the 2023-2024 season will decrease as production from pepper-producing countries is estimated to decrease. Accordingly, it is estimated that Vietnam’s pepper production in 2024 will decrease by about 10-15% to 160,000-165,000 tons; India by 20%, Indonesia by 20-30%, and Brazil by 15%.

Vietnam exported all of its harvests in 2023, a portion of which was taken from imports as well as inventories from the previous year. As a result, inventories in 2023 moving to 2024 will be at the lowest in recent years. It is expected that in 2023, Vietnam’s pepper exports will reach 250,000 tons.

In the early days of 2024, the price of pepper is increasing in the world market. According to the International Pepper Association (IPC), at the end of the trading session last weekend (January 05, 2024), the price of black pepper Lampung (Indonesia) increased by 0.03% (+1.0 USD/ton), to 3,940 USD/ton; the price of Brazilian black pepper Asta 570 stabilized at 3,270 USD/ton. Muntok white pepper price increased by 0.05% (+3.0 USD/ton), to 6,069 USD/ton; Malaysia Asta white pepper price stabilized at 7,300 USD/ton.

In Kochi (India), pepper prices continue to decrease by 200 Rupees/100 kg. Specifically, the price of GARBLED is down to 61,500 Rupees/100 kg; the UNGARBLED is at 59,500 Rupees/100 kg; the 500 GRAM/LITER is at 58,500 Rupees/100 kg./.

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