Global cocoa prices have just dropped to a 20-month low, marking the end of a two-year price increase that once pushed the market to record highs and put significant pressure on global chocolate manufacturers.
On the New York exchange, cocoa prices are now trading around 6,150 USD per ton, a sharp decrease from the peak of over 2,000 per ton last December. In London, cocoa prices have also lost about 58% of their value compared to the peak of 4,262 USD per ton in April 2024.
Experts believe the decline reflects a combination of weak consumer demand due to high chocolate prices, improved supply prospects thanks to favorable weather, and simultaneous withdrawals of capital by speculators.
“We’ve seen prices that are too high to be sustained in the long term,” said Mr. Oran van Dort, a commodities analyst at Rabobank. He also said that prices have shown a clear downward trend since mid-August.
Cocoa prices have declined by 58% compared to the peak recorded in April 2024.
The current sell-off marks a turning point compared to the severe supply shortage in 2022 in Ivory Coast and Ghana. The two countries account for about 60% of global cocoa production. At that time, drought, disease, and a lack of investment capital made it impossible for farmers to buy fertilizer or replant, driving cocoa prices to record highs.
The situation has gradually improved this year as rain returned after an unusual dry season, helping to reduce the risk of crop failure. Forecasts suggest that the 2025–2026 crop, starting from October 1st, could see a slight oversupply compared to demand.
The governments of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have significantly increased the guaranteed purchase prices for farmers, to about 5,000 USD per ton and 4,600 USD per ton, respectively, to encourage production. Higher prices are expected to encourage farmers to sell through official channels, prune trees, and reinvest in replantings, helping to increase production in the medium and long term.
However, consumer demand remains weak. According to Marex Brokers, global grindings of cocoa, a key measure of demand, dropped by about 500,000 tons compared to 2022, with the largest declines in Asia, Europe, and West Africa. “The current surplus doesn’t come from a sharp increase in production but from a decline in demand,” commented Mr. Jonathan Parkman of Marex.
In consumer markets, chocolate prices remain high. In the Netherlands, the price of a 100g chocolate bar increased by over 35% in September compared to the same period last year, according to Rabobank. Experts predict consumers may have to wait at least another six months before they see retail prices drop.
Despite the sharp price decrease, analysts believe it’s unlikely to return to 2,000–3,000 USD per ton like before 2023, as structural issues remain, such as aging crops, disease, and climate change. A study presented at the European Cocoa Forum in Malta stated that 35% of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa production could disappear by 2050, with 25% due to climate change and 10% due to virus.