Rubber supply may continue to be short in 2024 and 2025. As a result, rubber prices will have many fluctuations in the coming time.
INSUFFICIENT SUPPLY MAKES RUBBER PRICES FLUCTUATE SHARPLY
The Import and Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade has said that, from the beginning of April 2024, rubber prices at Asian exchanges have different changes. Prices have increased in Japan and Shanghai while they have decreased in Thailand.
The global market may be in short supply of about 600,000 – 800,000 tons per year.
In particular, 2024 is forecast to be a harsh year for rubber since the transition between El Nino and La Nina causes many fluctuations during the peak harvest season in Southeast Asia.
RUBBER EXPORTS TO KEY MARKETS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY
According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in March 2024, Vietnam’s rubber exports reached nearly 116.1 thousand tons, worth 180.36 million USD. This result was up 32.3% in volume and 38.8% in value against February 2024. Compared to March 2023, it increased by 0.2% in volume and 10% in value.
Accumulated in the first three months of 2024, rubber exports reached 414.31 thousand tons, worth 607.35 million USD, up 8.5% in volume and 14.3% in value over the same period in 2023.
Regarding export prices, the average export price of rubber in March reached 1,554 USD/ton, up 4.9% compared to February 2024 and 9.9% compared to March 2023. Accumulated in the first quarter of 2024, the average export price reached 1,466 USD/ton, up 5.3% over the same period in 2023.
According to data from the Import and Export Department, in March 2024, China remained Vietnam’s largest rubber export market, accounting for 52.83% of the country’s total rubber exports, with nearly 61.34 thousand tons, worth 90.72 million USD. This was up 4.5% in volume and 7.9% in value compared to February 2024.
However, compared to March 2023, it decreased by 29.3% in volume and 24.3% in value. The average export price to China was 1,479 USD/ton, up 3.2% compared to February 2024 and 7.1% compared to March 2023.
Accumulated in the first three months of this year, Vietnam exported 287.85 thousand tons of rubber to China, worth 407.82 million USD, down 1.6% in volume, but up 2.7% in value over the same period in 2023.
Notably, rubber exports to markets such as India, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Sri Lanka, Belgium, and the US in March 2024 grew strongly in both volume and value compared to March 2023.
India recently decided to reduce import tariffs on certain types of electric vehicles made by automakers who committed to invest at least 500 million USD and start domestic production within three years. This promises to be a new step for the country’s automotive industry. Along with this, the demand for rubber is also more positive for tire production./.