It is forecast that pepper prices will enter a rising cycle from early 2025, mainly due to a decrease in supply. Besides, higher transportation costs also play a role in pushing pepper prices up.
According to the Department of Import-Export (Ministry of Industry and Trade), the demand for pepper is now showing signs of recovery, especially in China. The approaching end-of-year holiday makes demand increase. Meanwhile, declining exports from Vietnam are also contributing to the market’s price increase, positively impacting global pepper prices.
Data from the General Department of Customs shows that by December 15, Vietnam has exported nearly 242,000 tons of pepper, worth 1.26 billion USD. The export value far exceeded the figure of 910.5 million USD for the entire year of 2023, while the export volume was about 23,900 tons lower.
The Department of Import-Export reported that the market is showing signs of speculation pushing up prices. Demand from the US and EU is now on hold due to having purchased enough goods, as well as the approach of the new year 2025. Currently, businesses are fulfilling previously signed orders, and purchases are at a low level.
Domestic pepper prices have increased today.
Experts predict that the stock of pepper in the public is almost gone, only in the warehouses of businesses. In the next 3-5 years, global pepper production will not be enough to meet consumer demand, showing that pepper has entered a new price increase cycle.
Many farmers said that after a year of high prices for pepper, they no longer want to massively plant new crops as before. Instead, they are focusing on increasing the yield and pepper quality through organic farming methods.
According to the International Pepper Community (IPC), the pepper market continues to be stable and is holding prices at a high level.
Specifically, the IPC listed the price of Lampung black pepper from Indonesia at 6,835 USD/ton and the price of Muntok white pepper at 8,945 USD/ton.
The ASTA 570 black pepper price from Brazil continues to remain quite high, currently at 6,275 USD/ton. The price of ASTA black pepper from Malaysia is 8,400 USD/ton, and ASTA white pepper is 10,600 USD/ton.
The export price of Vietnam’s black pepper is stable at 6,400 USD/ton for the 500 g/l type and 6,700 USD/ton for the 550 g/l type. The price of white pepper is high at 9,600 USD/ton.
According to the Department of Import-Export, in mid-December 2024, the global market saw inconsistent fluctuations in the export prices of black and white pepper compared to the end of November. The price of black pepper increased by about 205 USD/ton in Indonesia and 200 USD/ton in Brazil and Vietnam but decreased similarly in Malaysia.
On the white pepper market, the price of white pepper in Malaysia and Indonesia decreased by 100 USD/ton and 110 USD/ton, respectively. On the contrary, the price in Vietnam increased by 200 USD/ton.