According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports in May 2022 reached 150 thousand tonnes, bringing 343 million USD, down 4.7% in volume and 5.4% in turnover compared to April 2022. However, compared to May 2021, coffee exports increased by 15.2% in volume and 40.7% in value.
In the first 5 months of 2022, the average export price of Vietnam’s coffee was estimated at 2,251 USD/tonne, up 24% compared to the same period in 2021. (Photo: Internet)
Overall, in the first five months of 2022, Vietnam’s coffee exports were estimated at 889 thousand tonnes, valued at over US$2 billion, up 24.2% in volume and 54% in value compared to the same period in 2021.
SECOND IN THE WORLD IN COFFEE EXPORTS
In the first 5 months of the year, Vietnam exported most types of coffee. Exports increased compared to the same period in 2021, except for Excelsa coffee. In particular, Vietnam increased Robusta coffee exports to most traditional markets, including Germany, Belgium, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the United States.
According to the International Trade Center (ITC), in Q1/2022, the United States imported 404,449 tonnes of coffee, an increase of 9% compared to the same period last year. Of which, imports from Brazil decreased by 7.9%; imports from Colombia increased by 1%, and from Vietnam by 11.7%.
In May 2022, the average export price of Vietnam’s coffee was estimated at US$2,248 per tonne, down 0.8% compared to April 2022, but up 22.1% compared to May 2021. Overall, in the first 5 months of 2022, the average export price of Vietnam’s coffee was estimated at 2,251 USD/tonne, up 24% compared to the same period in 2021.
The data from the Vietnam General Department of Customs shows that Vietnam’s coffee exports to the EU market in the first 4 months of this year increased by 51.7% in volume and 89% in value compared to the same period last year, reaching 304,022 tonnes valued at US$668 million. The EU is currently our country’s largest coffee export market, accounting for more than 40% of exports.
From the beginning of crop 2021-2022 up to now, Vietnam’s coffee exports remained the second place in the world after Brazil. Significantly, while coffee exports from Brazil and Colombia declined, Vietnam’s coffee exports rose sharply.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), in the first 4 months of 2022, Brazil exported 14.1 million bags of 60 kg coffee, down 10.8% compared to the same period in 2021. In the first 7 months of crop 2021-2022, Brazil exported more than 25 million bags of coffee, down 8% compared to the same period last year.
Vietnam remains the second-largest coffee exporter in the world, with a volume of 16.2 million bags from the beginning of crop 2021-2022 to the end of May 2022, a strong increase of 19% compared to the previous year.
FNC – Colombia has reported that coffee exports in May reached 944,000 bags, up 599,000 bags, an increase of 173.63% against the same period of the previous year. Due to the social instability after the protests in May and June 2021, which caused Colombia’s exports last year to decrease, the number of coffee in stock increased in the first five months of 2022.
Besides, logistics issues have led the leading producer of high-quality Arabica coffee to unstable export results over the past months. Colombia’s coffee exports in the first 8 months of the crop 2021/2022 are 8,258,000 bags, down 233,000 bags (2.74% less than in the same period last year). Colombia is still ranked third in the world for coffee exports.
Coffee farmers are under pressure from the high cost of fertilizer and petroleum. (Photo: Internet)
COFFEE PRICE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE
Rising coffee export prices have caused an increase in domestic coffee prices over the past months. As of the beginning of June, the price of green coffee in the domestic market has up to the highest level in many years, ranging from 42,500 – 43,100 VND/kg, an increase of 7% (2,800 VND/kg) compared to the end of April 2022.
On June 9, 2022, the price of domestic grade 2 coffee (max 5% blacks and broken) was at VND 43.2 million in the Central Highlands, VND 43.7 million/tonne delivered to storage around HCM.
In the world market, coffee prices rose due to tightening supply, and the Brazilian Real strengthened against the USD. The stocks of certified arabica on the ICE floor have fallen to 1.06 million bags, the lowest level since mid-March. Rabobank said that the inventory would decrease for the rest of this year and possibly the year after.
However, coffee prices on the world’s exchanges have decreased slightly this week. Coffee specialist Nguyen Quang Binh said: “Over the past few days, the world’s coffee exchanges have seen down selling, causing coffee prices to fall slightly. But are these temporary to wait for the up?”
The closing price of the two coffee derivative floors on June 9, 2022, and the price of Robusta coffee in July on the ICE Europe floor – Lon don fell to US$2,100/tonne and the September also fell to US$2,117/tonne.
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US – New York floor is on a downward trend, in July down to 231.85 cents/lb and in September down to 232 cents/lb.
Coffee specialist Nguyen Quang Binh analyzes “The continued decline in the Reais has supported the Brasilians to boost coffee sales, even when China reopens and the prices of the majority of raw materials increase. This is the reason for the temporary decrease in prices. ”
“According to observers, the derivative coffee markets that are due to mature their options contracts in July are also the motivation for speculators to adjust the speculative positions they hold in the coming days. Therefore, it is forecasted that coffee prices will continue to rise in the second half of June and in quarter 2”.
FNC in Colombia has reported that the cumulative production of coffee in the first 8 months of crop 2021/2022 has decreased by 11.14% compared to the same period last year.
According to a report from Cecafé of Brazil, the coffee harvest season in Brazil is currently stalled due to unfavorable weather conditions. Meanwhile, the demand for raw coffee for instant and roasted coffee production is also high, likely to reach 22.5 million bags this year.
Experts forecast that coffee prices may continue to rise due to the exhausted supply.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the world coffee production in the crop 2021-2022 is forecast to be down by 8.5 million bags (equivalent to 4.8%) compared to the crop 2020-2021.
This is because Arabica coffee in Brazil enters the cycle of low productivity every two years and is affected by unfavorable weather conditions. In 2022, decreasing coffee supply from Brazil will be an opportunity for Vietnamese coffee exporters.
With an export turnover exceeding US$2 billion in the first 5 months of the year, the Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that the coffee industry is having an opportunity to surpass the US$3.7 billion record of 2012, to reach the US$4 billion mark for the first time this year.
However, Vietnam’s coffee exports also face many challenges. Coffee farmers are under pressure from the high cost of fertilizer and petroleum, affecting their profits. Some households have to cut input costs and limit sales to wait for prices to rise.
Therefore, the sale at dealers is also limited. Vicofa warned that rising fertilizer prices would cause farmers to cut their investment in caring. This could cause robusta production to decline by 10% in the upcoming crop.