According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), in June 2024, Vietnam exported 84.6 thousand tons of coffee, down 40% compared to the same period last year. However, because the export price has increased by more than 50% to a record high so far, the coffee export turnover in June 2024 still reached 300 million USD.
COFFEE PRODUCTION DECREASES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
In the first half of 2024, Vietnam exported about 902,000 tons of coffee, down 10.6% over the same period in 2023. Production has decreased; however, due to high prices, the country’s coffee export turnover in the first 6 months reached 3.2 billion USD, up 34.5% over the same period last year.
Coffee exports in 2024 can reach 6 billion USD.
The MARD forecasts that coffee exports in 2024 will definitely exceed 5 billion USD, even up to 6 billion USD, the highest level in history.
According to the MARD, a sharp decrease in the production of the past crop has caused the supply of exports to decrease.
The coffee export price in the first six months of 2024 reached the highest record ever, averaging 3,550 USD/ton. Meanwhile, the average export price of coffee in the first six months of 2023 was only 2,400 USD/ton. Compared to the same period last year, the export price of coffee in the first half of 2024 has increased by 48%.
The annual coffee harvest is from October of the previous year (the beginning of the new coffee harvest) to the end of September of the following year. According to the Department of Crop Production (under the MARD), Vietnam’s coffee area is over 710,000 hectares in the 2022–2023 crop; the harvested coffee output is nearly 1.8 million tons.
In the 2023–2024 crop, the coffee growing area is 709,041 hectares. Due to drought and pests in large coffee-growing areas, production has decreased by 20% compared to the previous crop, down to 1.47 million tons. This is the lowest level in four years, reducing the supply of Robusta coffee in the world market.
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), although coffee exports in the first half of 2024 decreased sharply, in the first 9 months of the 2023-2024 crop, Vietnam’s coffee exports were estimated at 25.25 million bags (equivalent to 1.52 million tons, up nearly 7.6% over the same period last year).
The decline in Vietnam’s coffee production will cause the global supply of Robusta coffee to continue to be “tightened”.
“Coffee exports in July, August, and September will decrease as the supply gradually runs out. Until October, when the new coffee harvest begins, Vietnam’s coffee supply will increase again,” VICOFA forecasts. At the same time, Robusta coffee production in the 2024–2025 crop will reach from 1.28 to 1.35 million tons, down by up to 20% compared to the 2023–2024 crop. However, this figure is significantly higher than the forecasts made by some organizations and industry experts in the past.
According to VICOFA, the severe drought in the Central Highlands earlier this year, combined with outbreaks of pests, is negatively impacting crop quality. Notably, drought and pests seriously affect coffee productivity in many places.
In Gia Lai alone, there are about 4,800 hectares, equivalent to 5% of the total coffee-growing area of the province, infected. The prolonged hot weather and rains at the beginning of the crop created a warm and humid habitat, stimulating the pests to develop strongly. The damage rate in some areas of Gia Lai province is up to 50%.
Meanwhile, Volcafe Coffee Trading Company (one of the largest coffee traders in the world) forecasts Vietnam’s coffee production in the next crop to be about 24 million bags (equivalent to 1.44 million tons). According to the preliminary forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the production is about 27.85 million bags (equivalent to 1.67 million tons). The decline in Vietnam’s coffee production will cause the global supply of Robusta coffee to continue to be “tightened,” causing world coffee prices to stay high. /.