According to the General Department of Customs, in June 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 85,000 tons, worth 382 million USD. This figure was up 7.1% in volume and 12.5% in value compared to May 2024. Over June 2023, the result was down 40% in volume and up 0.4% in value.
In the first half of 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports are estimated at 902,000 tons, worth 3.22 billion USD, down 10.6% in volume, but up 34.5% in value over the same period last year.
The average export price of Vietnam’s coffee was 4,489 USD/ ton in June 2024, an increase of 5.0% compared to May 2024 and 67.3% compared to June 2023.
Coffee exports have earned 3.22 billion USD in the first half of 2024.
The average export price of Vietnam’s coffee in the first half of 2024 is estimated at 3,570 USD/ton, up 50.4% over the same period last year.
Regarding the type structure, in May 2024, exports of most types of coffee decreased compared to the previous month, except processed coffee. Over the same period last year, Robsuta coffee exports decreased, however, exports of Arabica coffee, Excelsa coffee, and processed coffee grew positively.
Robusta coffee exports decreased by 9.6% in volume, but increased sharply by 42.7% in value over the same period last year, reaching 705.61 thousand tons, worth approximately 2.28 billion USD. The proportion of Robusta coffee exports accounted for 80.36% of the total coffee export turnover of the country in the first 5 months of 2024, higher than the proportion of 79.15% in the first 5 months of 2023.
Vietnam’s main export markets for Robusta coffee include Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, the United States, Indonesia, and the Netherlands. The export turnover of Robusta coffee to all above markets has grown well.
For Arabica coffee, in the first 5 months of 2024, Vietnam’s Arabica coffee exports reached over 39.74 thousand tons, worth 123.32 million USD. This result was up 45.6% in volume and 15.5% in value over the same period last year. Vietnam’s main export markets for Arabica coffee include Germany, Finland, the US, Japan, the Netherlands, Indonesia, and Belgium. The export turnover of Arabica coffee to most of the above markets grew positively, except for the Netherlands and Belgium.
The world supply of Robusta coffee as well as Vietnam’s domestic coffee will be tightened in the 2024-2025 crop.
The price of coffee is forecast not to exceed 135,000 VND/kg
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), unfavorable weather combined with the outbreak of pests will reduce the production of the next Robusta crop in Vietnam by 15% to 20%.
Based on Vicofa’s estimate, Robusta coffee production in 2023/2024 is about 26.7 million bags and Vietnam’s next crop 2024/2025 will be between 21.40 and 22.70 million bags. This is significantly lower than Vicofa’s previous preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and much below the USDA estimate of 27.85 million bags.
Forecasts from experts suggest that La Nina will replace El Nino later this year in Vietnam. This is considered an important factor affecting the coffee market. On the other hand, the coffee harvest 2024 – 2025 in Brazil started early from the end of April but the quality of coffee beans is uneven, limiting production expectations.
According to Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Quynh – Deputy General Director of the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), weather factors, especially frost concerns in Brazil, will continue to be the focus of the market’s attention in July. The addition of supply from Brazil cannot fully make up the shortage from Vietnam. Therefore, coffee prices in the beginning of the third quarter may continue to remain high but cannot exceed the historical peak of nearly 135,000 VND/kg.
The world supply of Robusta coffee as well as Vietnam’s domestic coffee will be tightened in the 2024-2025 crop. This means that the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces will continue to stay at a high level compared to previous years./.