The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) reported that cocoa prices continued to increase sharply to historical highs amid concerns over supply shortages.
The main reason driving cocoa prices to remain high is that West Africa, the production area that supplies about 3/4 of the world’s output, has been facing adverse weather. In addition, speculative buying in the late-year period has further made the situation more serious.
Cocoa prices hit a new peak.
Cocoa exporters in Côte d’Ivoire estimate that from October 1 to December 8 this year, the amount of cocoa arriving at ports in the country increased by 34% compared to the same period last year. However, this high increase is due to the fact that in 2023, the harvest yield and export volume of Côte d’Ivoire were low. Compared to 2022, the imported cocoa volume is about 12% lower. Currently, the dry weather in Côte d’Ivoire is raising concerns that this will affect the upcoming yield and production.
Previously, the cooperatives reported that most of the main harvest had been completed by November, and the shortage is forecast to last until February or March. Meanwhile, multinational exporters are concerned that they may not be able to meet orders due to a supply shortage from farmers in the coming months.
In addition to cocoa, coffee prices also recorded a good increase, especially Arabica coffee. Accordingly, the price of Arabica coffee for the March 2025 contract increased by 2.47%, and the price of Robusta coffee for the March 2025 contract increased by 0.37% compared to the reference. Below-average rainfall in Brazil’s main coffee-growing region has raised concerns about supply in Brazil.
The Somar Meteorological Agency reported that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee-growing state, reached only 35.2 mm last week, just 65% of the historical average rainfall. Thus, the main coffee-growing region of Brazil has continuously recorded low rainfall since April. This negatively affects the development of coffee in the 2025-2026 crop, leading to a negative supply outlook.
In Vietnam, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southeast were recorded at 123,500-125,200 VND/kg. Compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have now doubled.