Cinnamon currently ranks first in terms of export value to the Canadian market and accounts for nearly half of the cinnamon market share in this market.
POTENTIAL MARKET
The Vietnam Trade Office in Canada said that since the CPTPP, Vietnam’s export of cinnamon products to this market has increased sharply. Before 2018, Vietnam ranked third, after Indonesia and the US in terms of market share, but since 2019, Vietnam has reached the first in terms of export value and maintained its position to date, accounting for nearly half of the cinnamon market share in the Canadian market. Within 5 years after implementing the CPTPP, Vietnam’s cinnamon products have nearly tripled in turnover value with a rate of up to 179%.
Cinnamon and star anise exports to Canada increased strongly after the CPTPP Agreement.
Every year, Canada has an import demand of about 20 million USD for cinnamon products. The scale of consumption of this product in this market has gradually increased by about 22-25 million USD/year from now to 2025.
Vietnam’s main competitors are Indonesia, India, the US, China, and Sri Lanka, which are exporters of cinnamon sticks or powder. Meanwhile, the remaining countries such as Thailand, France, Germany, and Turkey often export deep-processed cinnamon products in the form of essential oils, cosmetics, etc.
For star anise, according to the latest data, in the first 7 months of 2023, Vietnam’s export of star anise products to this area reached 166,000 USD, down 0.4% over the same period last year. This decline took place in the context of the Canadian market having a decline in overall demand for this item of 8.4% compared to 2022. Exports of all countries to this market fell sharply except for India, Macedonia, and Spain.
Since the CPTPP, Vietnam’s star anise exports to Canada have increased sharply from 117,000 USD in 2018 to 381,000 USD in 2022. Before 2018, Vietnam ranked at the 8th position, but since 2022, Vietnam has reached the 6th position in terms of export value to the area.
According to the Vietnam Trade Office in Canada, although Vietnam’s star anise products have grown more than 3 times in turnover value at a rate of up to 226%, there are still many opportunities for development. Every year, Canada has an import demand of about 16 million USD for this item which is estimated to reach 20 million USD/year from now to 2030.
Currently, Vietnam’s main competitors are China, India, the US, Turkey, and Egypt. The remaining countries such as Italy, Germany, and Spain often export deeply processed star anise products in the form of medicines, cosmetics, etc.
For medicinal items, every year, Canada needs to import about 100 million USD from other countries. However, Vietnam does not have a significant position in this market. The list of Vietnam‘s competitors includes China, the US, India, Mexico, Morocco, Egypt, Turkey, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Colombia. Every year, Vietnam exports an average of about 500,000 USD of medicinal materials to the market, with a peak of nearly 700,000 USD in 2017. For pharmaceutical products, the impact of CPTPP is not considerable.
GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATION FOR VIETNAM’S CASSIA CINNAMON IS NEEDED
Notably, Vietnam’s star anise, cinnamon, and medicinal materials exported to Canada still enjoy 0% MFN tax even without using the CPTPP form. However, the use of the CPTPP form is useful for Canadian importers. Currently, Canadian producers are interested in RVC in their input strategies to take advantage of the principle of cumulative origin in production to export to markets where both Canada and Vietnam share the same Free Trade Agreement.
The Vietnam Cinnamon Association needs a strategy to develop a geographical indication for Cassia cinnamon.
However, after the CPTPP, exports of star anise and cinnamon products to the market also increased sharply. This shows that the CPTPP has had a leveraging effect, helping businesses of the two countries pay more attention to the structure of each other’s products/markets, thereby indirectly promoting exports of goods without a tax reduction roadmap. In addition, the CPTPP also has a positive impact on Vietnam’s exports thanks to the spreading effect, the development of the supply chain, transportation, and logistics between the two countries.
According to the Vietnam Trade Office in Canada, Vietnam has a lot of potential for growth in export turnover of star anise, cinnamon, and medicinal materials to the market because of four factors. Firstly, the demand in the Canadian market has increased stably in the last 10 years (300% in the period 2012-2022). Secondly, Canada’s immigration strategy plans to increase the population to 100 million people, with a minimum annual increase of 500,000 immigrants, of which about 50% are from Asia, with high demand for star anise, cinnamon, and Asian medicinal/spice products. Thirdly, due to the cold climate, Canadians increasingly prefer to use star anise and cinnamon in their cuisine and health care. Fourthly, in particular, the CPTPP has brought clear tariff advantages, helping Vietnam overcome competitors such as Indonesia, India, and China.
To increase market share and export turnover, the Vietnam Cinnamon Association needs a strategy to develop a geographical indication for Vietnam’s Cassia cinnamon to promote and affirm the advantages of Vietnam‘s Cassia cinnamon compared to Ceylon cinnamon of South Asia.
In addition, businesses need to coordinate with other industries to increase the value of deep processing and bring new products to the market such as cinnamon honey mixed with powder, cinnamon-scented candles, cinnamon bath oil, cinnamon flavor green tea, etc. For star anise products, now, Vietnam mainly exports in the form of raw materials without packaging and brand names, so it is difficult to identify Vietnamese products in the market./.