Facing the tariff adjustments from the US, the largest importer of Vietnamese cashew nuts, the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) remains optimistic that the export turnover in 2025 can be equivalent to the results achieved in 2024.
According to the General Department of Customs, in May 2025, Vietnam exported 81,116 tons of cashew nuts, with a turnover of 550.836 million USD. This is an increase of 10.5% in volume and 11.5% in value compared to last month. In the first five months of the year, the total volume of cashew nut exports was 276,761 tons, equivalent to 1.884 billion USD. This is a decrease of 5.3% in volume but a strong increase of 19.4% in value compared to the same period in 2024. This growth is mainly due to the increase in export prices, compensating for the decrease in output.
The US, the largest destination for Vietnamese cashews, recorded mixed developments. In May 2025, exports to the US reached 17,361 tons, valued at 117.606 million USD, a decrease of 3.37% in volume but an increase of 22.32% in value compared to May 2024.
In the first five months, cashew nut exports to the US reached 59,752 tons, with a turnover of 406.889 million USD, a decrease of 20.40% in volume but an increase of 1.72% in value compared to the same period last year.
Cashew industry is responding to challenges.
The main reason is the increase in export prices, which helps to partially offset the decline in production. However, from April 2, 2025, the US imposes a 10% import tax on cashews and some Vietnamese agricultural products. The Vietnamese government is continuing negotiations to maintain preferential tax rates, especially for products that the US does not produce, such as cashews, coffee, or pepper.
According to the vice chairman of the VINACAS, this tax is a challenge but has not caused serious impact yet. American importers continue to receive goods as per the signed contracts and agree to pay the additional tax.
The maximum tax the US could impose on Vietnamese cashews is unlikely to exceed 10%, as this is an essential item in this country. However, if the negotiations are not as expected, the export price may be reduced to offset the tax costs, putting pressure on the profits of businesses.
Meanwhile, cashew exports to China have increased sharply. In Europe, there is a slight decline or it remains stable. According to the VINACAS, the decline in exports to the US in May was partly due to importers waiting for clear tax policies from the Trump administration. Concerns that tariffs could increase after July 8, 2025, have driven strong purchases of some other agricultural products, but cashew nuts have not recorded a similar trend.
Another development positively supporting the cashew industry is the decrease in raw cashew prices. This facilitates businesses importing raw materials for production, especially in preparation for the holiday and year-end seasons. Usually, in the first six months of the year, the demand for cashew nuts is not high, so importers often do not increase their purchases.
Therefore, businesses expect the cashew market in the last six months of the year to improve. The decrease in raw cashew prices is a positive factor; however, many Vietnamese businesses signed contracts to purchase raw materials when prices were still high.
In recent years, the US has accounted for about 25-30% of Vietnam’s total cashew export turnover. In 2023 alone, the US imported over 130,000 tons of cashew nuts from Vietnam, with an estimated value exceeding 700 million USD.
Despite facing tariff adjustments from the US, which could directly impact production and export activities, the VINACAS is optimistic that the export turnover in 2025 can be equivalent to the result in 2024.