Thanks to attractive prices and an increasingly favorable trade environment, the Vietnamese catfish industry expects to increase production, export volume, and value in 2025.
The US and China are the top two markets importing the most Vietnamese catfish. According to statistics, in December 2024 alone, catfish exports to the US were nearly 28 million USD, an increase of 40% compared to December 2023. In the entire year of 2024, catfish exports to the US earned 345 million USD, an increase of 27% compared to 2023.
Experts forecast that in 2025, the US may increase its imports of Vietnamese catfish as the two sides have signed a bilateral agreement to lift anti-dumping duties on fillet fish exported from Vietnam. Along with that, the US’s implementation of the WTO ruling opens up great opportunities for exports of Vietnamese catfish to this market.
Vietnam’s catfish exports are forecast to grow by 5-10% in 2025.
In the new global trade context, Indonesia, India, and China are increasing their catfish production and processing capacities. Although the quality of their products may not yet catch up with Vietnam, they are entering deeply into specific market segments through competitive pricing strategies. This creates increasing pressure on Vietnam’s market share, especially in key export destinations such as the US, EU, Japan, and Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said that currently, Vietnam accounts for about 42% of the global catfish production, while countries like India, China, and Bangladesh contribute between 15% and 21%. Notably, China, the largest importer of Vietnamese catfish, is making strategic moves in its domestic supply chain. Meanwhile, India is increasing production, although the fish are mostly small-sized and only serve the domestic market. Indonesia, with lower production, has successfully exported to the Middle East with its own brand, gradually enhancing its reputation.
Experts believe that in the coming time, catfish exports may benefit from the higher tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese tilapia. Exporters also seem to view the issue in this way, as many companies have started or are considering processing tilapia.
The VASEP forecasts that catfish exports could increase by 5-10% by 2025, while competing products from Russia and China face unfavorable factors.
The above growth may come from reasons such as improved consumer confidence. Besides, new developments in global trade or the Vietnam-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement signed in 2024 will create opportunities for Vietnamese seafood to increase exports to the UAE market. The US’s anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese catfish is lower than that on other countries. The price of aquaculture feed is on a downward trend.