Global pepper production in 2025 is forecast to continue declining. While the demand for pepper in the US and Europe remains stable, China may wait until after Tet holiday to start buying pepper from Vietnam.
According to the International Pepper Community (IPC), global pepper production in 2024 is expected to decrease by about 04% (22,000 tons) compared to 2023, down to only 558,000 tons. This decrease mainly comes from Brazil and Vietnam.
The export price of pepper (FOB price) has increased by about 45% for black pepper and 34% for white pepper compared to 2023.
China may wait until after Tet holiday to buy pepper from Vietnam again.
The IPC forecasts that global pepper production will continue to decline in 2025 compared to 2024. The main reason is that pepper is no longer the key crop for many farmers, especially in the context of other crops offering more competitive economic value.
Furthermore, climate change with extreme weather events has reduced productivity, while the cost of maintaining pepper production has increased highly. Climate change affected production in some areas, according to the VPSA. However, in some other areas, the weather was favorable. For example, in Dak Nong, the “center” of Vietnamese pepper, the output was equivalent to 2023.
The production situation in some other key provinces, such as Gia Lai, Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai, and Ba Ria – Vung Tau, is showing positive signs as pepper prices increase. Therefore, farmers are investing in the care and restoration of their existing pepper gardens. Conversely, in Dak Lak, production has declined as people have switched to growing durian, and there are not many new plantings. The pepper production in 2024 reached 250,600 tons, a decrease of 5.1% compared to 2023 (which was 264,094 tons).
It is expected that after the Lunar New Year, farmers will start harvesting pepper. The harvest will last until the end of April 2025. The VPSA believes that China may wait until Vietnam’s main harvest (after the Lunar New Year) to start buying again.
Previously, in 2024, China reduced its pepper imports from Vietnam by 82.4% while increasing imports from Indonesia by 76.8%. However, this increase is not enough to meet the total demand in China. The pepper inventory in this market is currently low. These are the reasons why the VPSA believes that China will increase its purchases again.
In 2025, Brazil’s pepper production is expected to recover, while Indonesia may see a decrease in production due to investment difficulties and unfavorable weather conditions.
India, a major consuming country, is also forecast to reduce its pepper production due to the impact of floods, causing farmers to limit investments and sell inventory when domestic prices fall.
Global pepper prices in 2025 are expected to stay high due to a decrease in supply, while demand in major markets such as the US and Europe is stable. Furthermore, the demand for pepper in the food industry and spice processing remains the key driver for the market.