Pepper prices are at a high level and are expected to continue to increase as demand in the world market remains high while supply is limited. The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) forecasts that Vietnam’s pepper exports this year will reach over one billion USD, bringing pepper back into the billion USD group.
According to the VPSA, by July 30, Vietnam had exported 164,357 tons of pepper of all kinds: black pepper reached 145,330 tons and white pepper reached 19,027 tons. The total export turnover was 764.2 million USD. With the achieved results, in the next 5 months, pepper can completely return to the billion USD group.
Compared to the same period in 2023, pepper exports decreased by 2.2%, but the export turnover increased by 40.8%. The average export price of black pepper in 7 months was 4,568 USD/ton and white pepper was 6,195 USD/ton, up 32.7% and 25% USD, respectively.
It is forecast that Vietnam’s pepper exports this year will reach over one billion USD.
The US was the largest pepper export market. This was followed by Germany (up 97.3%), the UAE (up 39.2%), India (up 39.7%), and China (down 84.6%).
The reason for the increase of Vietnam’s pepper exports is that the global pepper supply is scarce.
Brazil is currently the second-largest producer and exporter of black pepper in the world after Vietnam, accounting for 17–18% of the total global supply. Therefore, the continuous crop failure in Brazil will have an impact on the world market. This is forecast to push up global pepper prices in the last months of 2024 when the pepper supply from other major producers such as Vietnam, Malaysia, or Indonesia declines significantly.
The pepper supply is now limited due to the impact of El Nino. In the long term, pepper production cannot meet the world’s demand.
In July 2024, the domestic pepper price reached 150,000 VND/kg, an increase of 82.9% compared to January and 120.6% over the same period in 2023. On average, the price of black pepper in 7 months increased by 66.5% over the same period in 2023.
Pepper prices have risen in the past three months as falling harvests in Vietnam and Brazil have caused supply shortages. The pepper market is facing many difficulties. Prices will continue to fluctuate in the coming time. The new cycle of price increases has just begun and will last about 10 years.
Pepper production is increasingly being competed by durian and coffee. New planting area has been recorded, but not much. Pepper is mainly intercropped with coffee. Through surveys in key pepper-growing areas of Vietnam, the pepper planting area has decreased by up to 50% compared to the peak period. However, according to the VPSA, the increasing competition from other crops such as durian and coffee, along with the negative effects of climate change, are the main causes of pepper prices becoming unpredictable. Next crop output may be equal to or slightly increase compared to 2024.