The export turnover of rubber in January 2024 doubled compared to January 2023. With this result, Vietnam’s rubber industry targets to export about 3.3 -3.5 billion USD in 2024.
According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s rubber exports in January 2024 reached about 260,000 tons, worth 365 million USD, up 92.6% in volume and 99.8% in value compared to January 2023. The average export price in January 2024 was 1,404 USD/ton, up 0.9% compared to December 2023 and 3.7% compared to January 2023.
OUTLOOK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2024
In contrast to the “gloomy” situation of 2023, Vietnam’s rubber exports in January 2024 doubled compared to the same period last year. This is giving hope to businesses in the rubber industry.
Latex price is now stable at a high level.
Rubber export rubber prices in early 2024 have increased compared to 2023. In the world market, the price of natural rubber has been up to a record level in seven years due to increasing demand from China’s electric vehicle industry along with poor output in Thailand, the world’s leading rubber producer.
The July futures price of natural rubber on the Osaka Exchange (OSE) – the reference contract for the Asian market – was traded on February 19, 2024, at 298.5 yen ($1.99)/kg, the highest close since February 17, 2017 (the highest in 7 years). Compared to the end of 2023, this price is 13% higher. In other Asian markets, prices are also rising at the same time.
A series of factors has pushed the price of rubber up. First of all, car sales are booming in China. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), by November 2023, car sales had increased by 27.4% to 2.97 million vehicles compared to a year earlier, then to 3.15 million in December 2024, an increase of 23.5%. The CAAM expects this country’s car sales in 2024 to grow to around 31 million vehicles.
Rising car sales pushed demand for natural rubber. According to Michelin, in December 2023, China’s tire demand for new vehicles grew by 30% from a year earlier. Analysts and rubber traders expect the price of this tire material to continue to stabilize at a high level in the coming time.
Meanwhile, Gu Jiong, Head of corporate services and investment at Yutaka Trusty Securities, said: “Due to the impact of extreme weather, this year, Thailand cannot increase enough production during the peak production season.” The Thai Meteorological Department warned on February 19 that severe weather from February 23-25, 2024 in the northeast, east, and central Thailand could cause further damage to rubber trees.
For Vietnam’s rubber exports, China remains the key factor. While many export sectors are worried about the Red Sea tensions and rising freight rates, the rubber industry will be less affected by this issue because the export market is mainly China. The whole rubber industry aims to earn 3.3 -3.5 billion USD in 2024./.